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Migration and inter-generational replacement in Europe

机译:欧洲的移民和代际替代

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摘要

There are long-standing concerns over low fertility levels in Europe and an increasingly important debate on the extent to which migration can compensate for below replacement fertility. To inform this debate, a wide array of indicators that assess the joint influence of fertility, mortality, and migration on birth replacement and intergenerational replacement have been developed. These indicators are based on various models and assumptions and some are particularly data demanding. In this paper we propose a very simple method to assess how far migration alters the extent of replacement for a birth cohort as it ages. We term the measure used here the overall replacement ratio (ORR). It is calculated by taking the size of a female birth cohort at selected ages divided by the average size of the cohorts of mothers in the year of birth. The paper presents estimates of the ORR for a range of European countries representing different replacement regimes. We demonstrate that for many countries net migration has become a key factor in their population trends during the last decades.
机译:长期以来,人们对欧洲的低生育率水平感到担忧,而关于移徙可以补偿低于替代生育率的程度的争论日益重要。为了给这场辩论提供信息,已经开发了评估生育,死亡率和迁徙对生育替代和代际替代的联合影响的各种指标。这些指标基于各种模型和假设,其中一些特别需要数据。在本文中,我们提出了一种非常简单的方法来评估人口迁移在多大程度上改变了其出生年龄的替代范围。我们在这里使用的度量是总替代率(ORR)。它是通过将选定年龄段的女性出生人数除以出生年份的母亲平均人数得出的。本文介绍了代表不同替代制度的一系列欧洲国家的ORR估算值。我们证明,在过去的几十年中,许多国家的净移民已成为其人口趋势的关键因素。

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